I have posted very little since Thanksgiving. I spent a fair amount of time with family over the holidays, I developed a passion for Sudoku, and I started skiing again. Together, these activities gave me a bad case of blogger's block.
I hope I am in recovery, but who knows. Anyway, I was reading today's Internet Acceleration Newsletter (which I enjoy a great deal) and saw these two briefs which mentioned a post I did the day Symantec acquired IMLogic
Symantec Strikes Yet Again -- At this rate we probably should devote a separate section of this newsletter to the latest Symantec acquisition. This time Symantec gobbled up IMlogic, one of the three companies competing for a share of the Instant Messaging security space. Until this move, IMlogic had been locking horns with FaceTime and Akonix competing for market share in this emerging sector. FaceTime seems to have maintained leadership having early on sold its products to NY financial institutions, one of the most important verticals in this space and they've since seemed to have smartly expanded their product line to encompass other types of threats. In all but a few verticals, protecting Instant Messaging hasn't yet caught fire, perhaps because there haven't been that many destructive attacks. For the past few years these IM competitors have spent half of their marketing budgets trying to convince customers to take IM threats seriously and the other half beating the heck out of each other -- whenever one of them put out a press release about a new feature the others followed within an hour or two. But it makes perfect sense for companies like Symantec to care about protecting against IM (remember what happened last year when these mainstream security companies ignored the Spyware problems and, in the process, created a bunch of new competitors?) and it might be that the best place for IM protection is either in the hands of a "portfolio" security company (meaning that the valuations of the remaining IM protection players probably goes up as a result of this acquisition) or else handled at the proxy level -- customers say that Blue Coat's IM management and security is perfectly adequate. With all of this going on and with the increase in real time collaboration applications that use an IM type framework, this space continues to be of interest.
Three Stages of Security -- we had lunch recently with Bob Walters, former CEO of Teros which Citrix acquired at the end of last year. Bob's got this great way of simplifying a lot of stuff -- in this case we'll call it Walters' Law of Startup Security Company Valuation. Walters' Law basically says that there are three stages of valuation -- Stage 1 is proving that there are vulnerabilities. Stage 2 is showing that the "threat" knows enough about the vulnerability to allow exploit (as evidenced by a small number of incidents) and Stage 3 is actual widespread exploitation. The premise of Walters' law is that if you get to stage one and can convince people that there is a vulnerability, you're probably able to get beta customers and raise some venture money (there's a lot of venture investors out there dying to get in on the latest big thing and they're sure to bite at the chance to get in on the ground floor of a new threat). If you can convince people that there is a serious threat due to the vulnerability, then Walters points out that you're probably able to find a moderate number of "careful" customers who have big enough concerns about a specific threat and are willing to purchase -- not huge sales numbers but enough to make a security company look credible. And then of course there is Stage 3 where real world exploits are publicized and customers are in panic mode (think Spam circa 2004 and Spyware circa 2005). While it's elusive and hard to predict, Stage 3 is where the big money is for startup liquidity. But most security companies struggle to get to Stage 2 where they wait and wait hoping for the worst (bad guys taking advantage of a vulnerability causing lots of customer pain).
These briefs hit the nail on the head: IM security is being overlooked; and Bob Walters' point about the market requiring proof of (rather than the potential for) risk is a good one; and the best place for this technology is in the hands of a "portfolio" player like Symantec.


